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Dayton leads Anderson Kelliher, Entenza trails by a lot in MPR poll

by The Big E on May 19, 2010 · 12 comments

Former US Senator Mark Dayton leads Speaker of the House Margaret Anderson Kelliher 38% to 28% in a new MPR/Humphrey Institute MN-GOV poll .  Matt Entenza trails these two with 6%.  The margin of error is 5.8%

The poll also found that if the general election were held right now, Dayton might have a slight edge, but it would be a toss-up regardless of which Democrat ends up taking on Republican candidate Rep. Tom Emmer.

The poll of 701 Minnesota adults, which was taken May 13-May16, shows Dayton is the favorite among likely DFL primary voters by a 10-point margin: 38 percent to 28 percent over House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher.

With a nearly 6% MoE, Dayton has a slight lead, but an interesting breakdown of the data shows that Dayton leads MAK among DFL women by 6%.

The good news for whomever prevails in the DFL primary is this:

A third of the Republicans who responded to the poll said they were either undecided, supporting a Democrat or backing the Independence Party-endorsed candidate Tom Horner.

Jacobs says for the sole Republican candidate to have only two-thirds of party members backing him is extraordinary, and not good news for Emmer.

Emmer is not well known and does not have the Republicans in the state behind him.  I think that former Republican Tom Horner (running as the IP candidate) has a great chance to pull a healthy margin of Republicans away from Emmer as I think many Republicans will be as frightened of Emmer as I am.

strategery May 19, 2010 at 5:23 pm

Entenza = 6%
MoE = 5.8%

So we cannot say with any real certainty that Entenza’s MoE is any greater than .2%.

lams712 May 19, 2010 at 7:27 pm

with such a LARGE margin of error. Also, it is way too early to get too worked up about this.  

mtullius May 19, 2010 at 8:01 pm

this poll is REALLY bad news for Entenza.  It shows he has no base of support and a loooooong way to go to catch up in a not very big amount of time.  This suggests to me that my choices are down to Dayton and Kelliher….

JML May 19, 2010 at 8:12 pm

I think we’re seeing why Matt’s gotten aggressive with his tv right now.

A lot of Mark’s support is probably based on name recognition right now, and there’s a lot of room for movement for all the candidates.

But I’m not very impressed with a state-wide poll that has a MoE of nearly 6%.

Also?  Larry Jacobs is an idiot.  His bashing of the DFL based on this poll is moronic, considering who the individuals being polled actually are.  but it’s exactly the kind of simplistic analysis I expect from a hack like him.

Mark should be happy about this, and so should Tom Horner, and Matt can’t be too happy.  but it’s still May, it’s just one poll (a pretty meh one at that), and the one thing it shows we can really count on is that there’s a lot of uncertainty still out there right now.

Powderhorn Bikers May 19, 2010 at 9:37 pm

First, when I talk to the MAK people, they all seem to mention that woman make up 56% of primary voters.  In the MPR article on this poll, Mr. Jacobs (who is not a moron) says that MD is leading MAK with women by 8%.  

This is a key piece of their strategy.  I’m not tolling the bell on MAK yet, but from her campaign for the endorsement to the legislative session, to this poll, she has yet to impress me.  

strategery May 19, 2010 at 10:20 pm

Trailing 8% among women vs. 10% overall means she’s doing better with women, but I get your point.  I don’t think that anyone over there assumes women will support her merely because she’s a woman.  And name ID is still a powerful thing at this point.  And the MoE is really high.  

Basically it’s one poll and it’s early… and the only person that really needs to worry here is Entenza.

dyna May 19, 2010 at 10:51 pm

With Janezich at 20% and Ciresi and Yanish at around 15-16%.

strategery May 19, 2010 at 11:05 pm

10 points down in a 4-way race ain’t the same as 30 and 20 down in a 3-way race.  Points for trying to polish a turd though.

ericf May 19, 2010 at 11:37 pm

I agree with Dyna’s point that the poll isn’t definitive at this point by any means. A lot can and will change over almost three months. I agree with strategery that this is a different race. It will take a bigger plurality to win, so Entenza’s position is much weaker than Dayton’s was in 2000.

Entenza isn’t done, but he’s close to it. Probably this is a two candidate race, with Entenza’s endorsement being somewhat valuable if he’s willing to endorse instead of running to the bitter end. He might then get what he wants in terms of a policy position.

harry truman May 19, 2010 at 11:39 pm

she’s only 10 pts down with Dayton’s millions and name ID!  She hasn’t run ads and has barely started the door-knock/direct mail campaign.

I think Dayton v Janezich and Humphrey v Freeman 2 1/2 months before those primaries were more like 4:1.  The question for Entenza is, as he picks up support, is it coming out of MAK’s # or Dayton’s #?

penelope May 20, 2010 at 2:22 am

Emmer doesn’t have the greatest name recognition but he’s still up there in the polls about the general election. Of course some of that may have represented the “convention bump”.

NorthernMNer May 20, 2010 at 7:40 am

as well.  MAK is the endorsed candidate, and the Speaker of the House.  She has the resources of the DFL behind her, and yet she is down 10 points.  

Yes, this is early, and with a higher MoE then we would want.  But still, Dayton will also have a ground campaign to meet MAK and Entenza, and the primary is now in August, which I think will mean the senior voting bloc will have more influence in the outcome, and that bloc leans toward Dayton.  

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