According to this, yes.
These data throw a monkey wrench in the conventional wisdom about abortion rights – namely, that it’s an issue that the GOP could use to make inroads with the new Obama coalition. Young voters, women, African-Americans, and Latinos have average-to-conservative views on choice, we’re told. But many identified as pro-choice in 2012. What gives?
Part of the answer is that the general picture is wrong: these key Democratic groups generally track the national average on abortion or tilt left. Though some polls suggest young voters are likely to support restricting abortion rights, the most systematic evidence suggests Milllenials are as, if not more, likely to support keeping abortion legal in all or most cases as the general population. Ditto with women. While African-Americans used to lean right, the most recent polling suggests a decisive pro-choice shift.
Even Latinos, who generally (though not always) tend to oppose abortion rights, have more complicated views than pundits generally let on. While first and second generation Latino-Americans tend to oppose abortion in most or all cases, third generation and higher Latinos support abortion rights by a 19 point margin.
I’ve been skeptical of analysis like this. I stand ready – indeed, enthusiastically willing – to be proved wrong. More below the fold.
This questions whether more women in Congress will necessarily lead to better policy.
In these days when Republicans seek to dilute or demolish New Deal and Great Society programs, it would be terrific if leaders among that record number of women in Congress would, like Norton, spur elected Democrats to stop playing defense so much of the time and move ahead with fresh initiatives that improve the lives of working women and men the way those initiatives three-quarters of a century ago have done.
It certainly doesn’t seem likely that Republicans will change.
The issues the Violence Against Women Act addresses are not going away just because House Republicans are blocking the bipartisan Senate bill. Domestic violence shelters say they’re at risk of losing funding if the bill doesn’t pass soon, while the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy is still putting a strain on the ability of shelters and other domestic violence organizations in the northeast to help women get away from their abusers.