This is the first in a series of essays on why I believe the Republican Party (“RPM”) of Minnesota is a dead organization that will be replaced by something new within the year. The first few entries will explain why I think the party is dead. Then I will outline one scenario about what I think could replace it.
Big money is going to stay away from RPM because it is not worth investing in anymore for several reasons. Smart money will go to the new alternative.
This series of notes is called the GOP Apple Tree because it is based on how to value an asset in which you are asked to invest. Suppose your neighbor offered to sell you a small plot of adjoining land on which there grows an apple tree. How much you should pay for the land and the tree depends on how you value the assets.
What is the apple tree worth if you chopped it down and sold it as firewood? Should you value the tree on the basis of next year’s crop? Ten years’ worth of projected crops? The shade offered by the tree? The cost of taxes on the land? The utility of the land, whether or not the tree remains? Alternative values and returns you could reap if you invested your money in some other investment? There are a lot of factors for an intelligent investor to consider.
So assume you are an investor who has been asked to invest $50,000 in the RPM. What questions would you ask before you looked to see if there was a batter and new place to put your money?
A first question might be, “how has the RPM done in state-wide elections over the past ten years?
Does 1 for 21 sound good to you? Smart money will look for a new alternative.
If you are 1 for 21 over ten years, even Ron Gardenhire would send you down to the minors and look for a better investment.
2012 Barack Obama(52.65%) Mitt Romney (44.96 %) RPM LOSS
2012 Amy Klobuchar (65.23%) Kurt Bills (30.53%) RPM LOSS
2010 Mark Dayton (43.63%) Tom Emmer (43.21%) RPM LOSS
2010 Mark Ritchie (49.10%) Dan Severson (45.64%) RPM LOSS
2010 Rebecca Otto (48.39%) Pat Anderson (47.13%) RPM LOSS
2010 Lori Swanson (52.90%) Chris Barden (41.27%) RPM LOSS
2010 Helen Meyer (58.01%) Greg Wersal (41.79%) RPM LOSS
2010 Alan Page (63.29%) Tim Tingelstad (36.53%) RPM LOSS
2008 Barack Obama (54.06%) John McCain (43.82%) RPM LOSS
2008 Al Franken (41.99%) Norm Coleman (41.98%) RPM LOSS
2008 Paul Anderson (60.41% Tim Tingelstad (39.21%) RPM LOSS
2008 Terri Stoneburner (58.70%) Dan Griffith (40.89%) RPM LOSS
2006 Amy Klobuchar (58.06%) Mark Kennedy (37.94%) RPM LOSS
2006 Mike Hatch (45.73%) Tim Pawlenty (46.69%) RPM WIN
2006 Mark Ritchie (49.09%) Mary Kiffmeyer (44.16%) RPM LOSS
2006 Rebecca Otto (51.92%) Pat Anderson (41.08%) RPM LOSS
2006 Lori Swanson (53.24%) Jeff Johnson (40.72%) RPM LOSS
2006 Chris Dietzen (56.04%) Dan Griffith (43.63%) RPM LOSS
2004 John Kerry (51.09%) George Bush (47.61%) RPM LOSS
2004 Alan Page (72.01%) Tim Tingelstad (27.75%) RPM LOSS
2004 Jim Randall(62.15%) Dan Griffith (37.57%) RPM LOSS