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Michele Bachmann: new poll=election trouble for Bachmann

by Bill Prendergast on September 10, 2012 · 3 comments

A new poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan indicates that Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is more vulnerable to her Democratic challenger than previously believed.

The polling firm surveyed about registered likely voters in the Sixth Congressional district of Minnesota from August 29 to August 30.  The results indicate only forty per cent of the voters in Bachmann’s politically conservative district rate her performance “Excellent/Good.” Thirty-five per cent of those polled rate Bachmann’s performance “Poor.”

Asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, forty-eight per cent of those polled indicated that they would vote for incumbent Bachmann and forty-six per cent indicates they would vote for her opponent Jim Graves, a newcomer to politics.

Hmm… this may explain her “quietude” since the RNC. Yes, it’s a Dem-leaning polling outfit: but they’ve got a lot of integrity and a track record and Bachmann certainly takes them seriously…

…and Bachmann’s people are also taking the temperature of the voters in the district. Perhaps those internal results–are keeping a lid on Michele’s mouth this last week…

Here’s the thing. She’s in a little bind. She needs the money, and polls and news stories that show Michele in any kind of real or imagined plight are worth a million to her (she fundraises off them, the national bucks just roll in when she cites “they’re out to get Michele!” news.)

But the other way she amps up the fund-raising is by: saying something hateful and/or false in the national media. So she has a dilemma.
(CONTINUED)
This year the media began to come down hard on Paul Ryan for making patently false claims in his veep acceptance speech at the RNC. (That’s the Bachmann tradition, making patently false and even paranoid claims as a matter of political strategy.)

What is Bachmann to do, in the wake of a media that actually dared to point out Ryan is a “liar” after they caught him lying?

Bachmann’s not used to operating in that kind of media climate, certainly not here in Minnesota.

That’s the problem. Being quiet, costs her contributions from around the country. Shooting off another paranoid apocalyptic lie–will bring in the dough.

But the new poll indicates that her numbers are beginning to suffer because people in the district think that she’s doing too much of the paranoid showboating–and not enough about unemployment and home foreclosures in the district.

Tough week, Michele.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/1054…

gregladen September 10, 2012 at 9:58 pm

There is an assumption here that is both absurd and totally correct.  The assumption is that Bachman has only two modes in which she can operate: Paranoid showboating and silence.  

Why would anybody have only those two modes?  Perhaps more important, how can someone with only those two modes be elected, and repeatedly re-elected, to represent a district in the Congress of the United States?

This is probably worth study. A team of cognitive scientists should be dispatched to the sixth district to do so.  

Bill Prendergast September 10, 2012 at 10:55 pm

those two modes. Even if that is absurd and correct at the same time…

…that’s not my assumption here or elsewhere. She does have other modes. The dilemma I’m pointing out here is that those other modes don’t produce dough.

She can do photo ops with people who promote foster-parenting, she’s done that, perfectly reasonable mode. But it doesn’t produce money, moolah, dough.

On the other hand, when she goes out into the major media with a wild statement indicating bigotry, conspiracy, apocalypse, outright lies–she taps into a national network of paranoid gifters, and the money comes in. Especially if she’s criticized for making such statements.

Her bind right now is that it’s hard for her to use the “tranparent lie mode” now, in the wake of general charges of dishonesty against the Romney campaign. And every day that she doesn’t spout some crazy BS in “transparent lie mode”–costs her money.

But no, this post doesn’t assume she’s only got two modes– “off/silent” and “on/paranoid demagogue.” I don’t assume that either, that’s underestimating the movement she represents. A lot of Bachmann-type candidates in MN elections right now are soft-pedaling the paranoid stuff; they have more than one mode and I’m going to write about that this week.

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