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A-Klo, Dayton and the terrible, rotten, no-good Legislature

by TonyAngelo on February 10, 2012 · 5 comments

Amy KlobucharThis is me, two weeks ago:

Posts about Amy Klobuchar polls are not really that fun to write. Every one is exactly the same, Amy is at around 55% and when you’re at 55% it doesn’t really matter what your challengers are doing.

And hey, look at that, this poll shows her at 55%. Against everyone. Again. For the third time. Call me shocked.

And ten weeks before that:

I might as well just write up a template for all these A-Klo poll posts, because they’ve all been the same so far. Amy Klobuchar is polling well over 50% against her announced opponents and is polling at 50% against the MN GOP’s A-team, who can’t even crack 40% against her.

And today:

SurveyUSA (2/3, 11/8 in parenthesis):

Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 56 (55)
Dan Severson (R) 29 (23)
Undecided 15 (22)

Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 59 (56)
Joe Arwood (R) 28 (22)
Undecided 14 (22)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

The real notable thing about this poll is that some of the undecideds have come off the fence and almost all of them went into the Republican candidates column, both Severson and Arwood are up 6 points since the last SUSA poll.

While that may seem like a bit of a worrying trend, it’s not. It’s was simply undecided Republicans, deciding to go with the Republican, which was going to happen anyway.
Observe:


Change in undecideds by party affiliation
Severson Rep Dem Ind
8-Nov 23 12 28
3-Feb 9 10 23
Change -14 -2 -5
Arwood Rep Dem Ind
8-Nov 24 12 27
3-Feb 10 8 22
Change -14 -4 -5

What the above table shows is the percentage of undecided voters in the two match ups, broken out by party affiliation. What you see is that in the November poll there were a lot more undecided Republicans than there are now, which explains why the GOP candidates have gained.

The problem for them is that there are only so many undecided Republicans.

Compared to Amy’s numbers, Mark Dayton may not look that impressive, but compared to the Republican lead Minnesota Legislature, he’s smelling like roses.

SurveuUSA (2/3, no trend lines):

“Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Dayton is doing as Governor?”

Approve 50
Disapprove 33
Not sure 17

“Do you approve or disapprove of the job the State Legislature is doing?”

Approve 17
Disapprove 65
Not sure 18
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Mark Dayton continues to hover right around the 50% mark, PPP had him at pretty much the same numbers two weeks ago (53-34).

The numbers for the legislature though are just straight up dismal. They’re at a comically bad (-48) spread. Even self identified Republicans disapprove of the legislature’s job performance by a remarkably bad (-21) spread.

If you think that’s bad though, check this: 30% of Republicans approve of the job the legislature is doing. 26% of Republicans approve of the job Mark Dayton is doing.

Worst. Legislature. Ever.

seano February 10, 2012 at 7:22 pm

Independents give the legislature even lower marks than Democrats do.  If that holds, that should help Democrats in swing districts.

Grace Kelly February 10, 2012 at 11:12 pm

The part missing is Republicans absolutely control this legislature which is why it is

Worst. Legislature. Ever.  

ericf February 11, 2012 at 1:56 am

is that is isn’t for another nine months. Can we have the election tomorrow, please?  

EP Dem February 11, 2012 at 5:47 am

Too bad about the issues she decides to stand up for and the ones she votes against. I’m not that excited to vote for her in the next election.

Dan February 11, 2012 at 6:49 am

would be for Amy to burn up a little bit of that excess political capital she has on the marriage amendment and down ticket races.  

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